BOHICA: RTD FasTracks costs explode once again; latest estimate adds $968.3 million
January 19th, 2012
The latest cost estimates from RTD for the FasTracks boondoggle have grown by nearly $1 billion.
The $4.7 billion commuter rail project that Denver area voters approved in 2004 continues to see unprecedented cost increases. The severely mismanaged project now is forecast to cost taxpayers $7.8 billion, $968.3 million more than the previous estimate.
The Annual Program Evaluation (APE) presented to the RTD Board of Directors this week continues to highlight the failures of the FasTracks program dating back to its conception. The costs for the project were severely underestimated – many times – and mismanagement has become engrained in the boondoggle.
It was less than one year ago that the 2011 APE painted a dire picture of a project drowning in red ink. The latest APE tacks on an additional $968.3 million to the cost of the project reflecting more than a 60% increase in what taxpayers were told it would cost originally.
Despite RTD’s promises in recent years to get their cost estimates right, this report shows they still haven’t figured out their math. It is up in the air as to whether they are incapable of providing accurate estimates or simply too incompetent (I think the latter).
RTD blames the bulk of the latest cost increase (85% of it) on various issues related to the Northwest Rail corridor to Boulder and Longmont. In a familiar refrain, the district says that as it completes its planning for the corridor, it realizes it is going to cost more.
This should serve as a warning to taxpayers that when RTD moves on to the North Metro corridor and others, cost estimates will certainly increase even further. Taxpayers were promised something that RTD cannot deliver.
Of particular note is this from the presentation: “These costs assume a successful sales and use tax election in 2012, with Northwest Rail completed by 2024, and all other projects completed by 2020.”
In other words, the only way the boondoggle gets done in a reasonable amount of time is if voters agree in November to take it in the shorts and approve a massive doubling of the tax we are already paying for FasTracks. The RTD Board will decide whether or not to put the issue on the ballot but the passage of such a measure is far from assured.
RTD’s track record of failing to deliver on its promises and its repeated shortchanging of taxpayers is sure to hurt it.
Adams County voters were the only ones to reject the original TaxTracks measure. The North Metro line continues to see not only increased costs associated with it, but also cuts in the service that were originally proposed. This would not seem to bode well for RTD to get the county’s voters to view the program favorably.
Also of big concern for RTD are the recent revelations regarding the Northwest Rail Line. Cost is of course an issue but what should make Broomfield and Boulder County residents concerned is RTD’s latest idea of cutting rail service to the area entirely to eliminate those cost increases.
Under one proposal the RTD Board is considering, they would, “Remove Northwest Rail Line from the FasTracks program, and replace the commuter rail with expanded BRT [Bus Rapid Transit] in the service area.”
It is interesting to note that RTD says, “BRT would provide more peak and off-peak service than could be provided by the rail.”
So then why the heck are we building rail at all?
Critics of the FasTracks program have said from the start that BRT would have been a better solution across all of the corridors. BRT provide better, more flexible service and costs less to implement and maintain.
RTD and taxpayers instead have become infatuated with the idea of bright, shiny trains riding the rails despite the fact they don’t do the job as well as BRT and cost far more (especially when someone as incompetent as RTD is running the show).
Boulder Councilwoman KC Becker told the Daily Camera recently, “I look at this and I think, ‘Oh my gosh, we’re just hosed’”
Welcome to the club, Becker.
On the net:
I find this train of articles frustrating. I think people mentally like shiny trains. Look at the price increases for real estate near stops where light rail has stops in Denver. I think that is great…. however, as far as cost, I think BRT probably is more cost effective and provides a similar service.
I think we should talk to the RTD board members who represent Adams county. I had a hard time remembering the name of the new appointed member for District K, so I had to look up this announcement on the Adams county website:
http://www.co.adams.co.us/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=65
It looks like districts I,J,K, and C all represent Adams county to some extent. I wonder if we can get more information about this issue from these representatives.
Here are some RTD links:
http://www.rtd-denver.com/BoardDirectors.shtml
http://www3.rtd-denver.com/elbert/BoardOffice/boardDistrictMap.cfm
Andrew,
Your frustration should be with RTD, not the articles. This article in particular is full of truth – much needed, and mostly absent, in this discourse.
Any contention that people “like” trains more than busses should be tempered with hard peer reviewed research backed reality. When service characteristics are the same (like with BRT), people don’t care. See http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0967-070X(02)00009-4.
The purpose of government transit should be to provide for the public what the market will not, at the least possible cost. If you accept the idea that RTD has a legitimate purpose, you should expect them to accomplish that purpose (moving people from point A to B) as efficiently as possible. As the GAO has shown, that is clearly BRT. See http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d01984.pdf.
Your point about prices spiking around train stations is right on the money. This is why all the real estate folks threw their money behind the first FasTax campaign – the profits go right into their pockets. Local/state government types also love the spike because it means more tax revenues in their pockets due to rising property tax, and sometimes appurtenant commercial development generating sales tax. But all the additional taxes generated and the real estate profits combined cannot justify the true costs of light rail. FasTracks lines the pockets of rent-seeking real estate developers at the expense of the tax paying public. This doesn’t help our local economy, it just misallocates scarce dollars to a less productive use. RTD knew that when they started running the numbers, so they had to lie about how much it would cost.
Lie is a strong word, I admit. I think it is justifiable given that RTD’s repeated “underestimates” have been so large, despite their continued broken promises to get it right. There is peer reviewed research suggesting that lies are a common tactic to garner support for rail projects, moreso than any other type of project, and that the excessive cost overruns of rail cannot simply be explained by incompetence. See http://www.industrializedcyclist.com/Flyvbjerg02.pdf. That is MY primary contention with Tony’s article – he chalks it up to dummies, when the real culprits are liars.
Adam