In what is hardly a shocker, the Denver Regional Council of Governments’ latest annual review of the RTD FasTracks project paints a picture of continued failures with the largest boondoggle in the state of Colorado.  Despite continued budget problems and repeated warnings about their overly optimistic expenses and income for the project, RTD continues to show they simply can’t do the math. 

• Click here to view the DRCOG review

By RTD’s latest estimates, FasTracks now faces a $2.2 billion shortfall in funding.  As the DRCOG report says, “To address this gap, RTD developed implementation alternatives during 2008, which included lengthening the construction schedules, adjusting corridor lengths, making service changes, seeking additional funding, or a combination of the alternatives.”

The ‘additional funding’ mention is key as RTD will be coming to the voters seeking a bailout by nearly doubling the tax voters approved in 2004 for FasTracks.  DRCOG points out that RTD’s estimates are “optimistic” and says that the district should “be even more conservative in its assumptions.”  It would appear that after selling the voters a bill of goods it was unable to deliver at the promised cost in the first place, RTD continues to fail to do the math properly and provide an accurate estimate. 

Are voters really gullible enough to vote to continue to fund this boondoggle? 

Among the notable findings in the DRCOG report (quoted / excerpted): 

• DRCOG staff still regards it as optimistic, principally the revenue projections.
• DRCOG staff recommends that RTD’s next Financial Plan, submitted in an Annual Report to DRCOG presumably before the needed ballot initiative, be even more conservative in its assumptions
• Most of the environmental studies are well behind the original 2004 schedule and many have fallen farther behind since the 2007 Annual Review
• The total number of at-grade crossings in the FasTracks Plan has grown from 135 originally to nearly 165..at-grade crossings create delay to users of the roadway network (motor vehicles including buses, pedestrians, and bicyclists), with an estimated one-minute gate time per train, and at-grade crossings have a potential for crashes.
• The corridor costs escalated in the 2007 Annual Report from $4.7 billion to $6.1 billion and continued to increase in the 2008 Annual Report to nearly $7 billion, a 14.5 percent increase from the 2007 Annual Report.
• RTD applied an average of 25 percent contingency to estimated corridor construction costs. The consultant suggests RTD’s amount “may be too low for the design stage of most of the corridors.”
• Also, RTD applied no contingency to design, construction management/inspection, insurance or overhead and indirect amounts. The consultant recommends RTD do so.
• DRCOG staff and the consultant are concerned that RTD’s projections are still optimistic.
• DRCOG staff continues to have reservations about RTD’s New Starts revenue expectations (which have increased since the last review) and RTD’s sales and use tax forecasts. Staff recognizes the potential benefits of P3 funding, the amount of which has increased substantially in this year’s financial plan, but at this time the amount and true benefits remain speculative.
• There is still substantial uncertainty in all the key elements of the FasTracks revenue stream. Overall, DRCOG staff considers the revenue element of the Financial Plan to be optimistic.

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